UFC 322 Main Event Analysis & Prediction

MAIN EVENT BREAKDOWN: JDM vs. ISLAM MAKHACHEV

JDM’s Path to Victory

JDM has proven he can handle high-level wrestlers — his defense against Belal was sharp, though Belal didn’t lean on the takedown nearly as much as Islam will. The key here is pressure. Islam struggles when he’s forced to move backward, so JDM needs to keep him retreating and dictate the pace early.

• Keep him on the back foot. Islam’s least effective when he’s reacting instead of controlling.
• Teep kicks and attacks up the middle will be crucial to break rhythm and stop level changes.
• Leg kicks have historically worked well against Islam — chop him down, take away that base.
• Defend, but don’t overreact. Islam’s takedowns are elite, but fighters lose when they respect them too much. Volk and Dustin both found success by staying loose and composed, even on the ground.
• Control the range. Don’t overextend or back out carelessly — Islam thrives on transitions.
• Conditioning matters. Islam has shown fatigue in later rounds, especially carrying more weight. If JDM can drag him into deep waters, the tide turns fast.
• Smart defense. Keep the guard low, ready to sprawl — not high and flashy. Stay grounded, not pretty.

Islam’s Path to Victory

Islam’s formula is well-established — pressure, feints, and control. If he sticks to that playbook, he’s dangerous.

• Feints, feints, feints. Use them relentlessly to disguise entries and keep JDM guessing.
• Set up the takedown through striking. Make JDM comfortable on the feet, then change levels.
• Don’t abandon the hands, but don’t fall in love with them either. Stick to what wins fights.
• Time the counters. When JDM throws back, that’s Islam’s moment to shoot and find a leg.

Prediction

Unanimous Decision — JDM.
This is Islam’s biggest test yet. Volk pushed him to the edge and arguably won their first fight — and that was a featherweight moving up. Dustin defended well late in his career. JDM, on the other hand, is in his prime, similar in size (if not bigger), and coming off a win against a top-tier wrestler and Islam’s close friend.